Central Asia Struggles to Keep Tensions in Check

by Anara Tabyshalieva

Central Asia's turbulent transition has fragmented societies throughout the region. With a territory larger than Europe and a population of almost 55 million, Central Asia faces overpopulation in some areas and tremendous economic, social and ecological problems in all areas. These problems are complicated by the ethnic diversity in the new states. Never a monolithic set of people or states, Central Asia's diversity is now quite obvious. Conflict is increasing around a number of issues, including social, economic, political and gender issues.

The newly independent states of Central Asia are unprepared to face the current crisis of ethnic and religious co-existence. The republics developed into independent, polyethnic states without effective policies to deal with the new situation. Inexperience and reliance on existing structures have resulted in policies that have led to strife and unrest, and a new model for the co-existence of ethnic groups in Central Asia is urgently needed.

Although it is very difficult to generalize across the Central Asian republics, it is possible to reach some tentative conclusions about the sources of conflict. Many of the current tensions have roots in the Soviet period. While formerly the repressive Soviet apparatus helped prevent the outbreak of conflicts, now that Moscow's hand has weakened it is not surprising that ethnic conflicts have flared up. The creation of the Central Asian republics by Moscow provided the underlying framework through which conflicts have developed today. A main source of tension is territorial boundaries.

During the Soviet period, Stalin (as well as Krushchev and Brezhnev) deported various peoples to Central Asia, changing the region from relatively homogenous to multi-ethnic and multi-religious. Despite the slogan of equality among peoples, the system led to the strengthening of ethnic divisions, particularly in Central Asia. The Soviet myth of the non-ethnic worker was far from reality in the Central Asian republics. With the division of the area into five distinct republics, each republic was presented with a history and culture that served to strengthen its ethnic identity.

Instead of blending in a single Soviet melting pot, there was a crystallization of ethnic and clan groupings. Inside of each republic there was also a great deal of struggle among ethnic groups for control of power and resources. For example, in Tajikistan, people in the Northern region (Khodjent) generally made up the upper echelons of power. This is illustrated by the folk saying, "Tajik women in the North bear only leaders and scholars, in the South only workers and farmers." With the collapse of the Soviet empire, the struggle among territorial elites in Tajikistan and other countries has only increased.

Russians were often given the best positions, while the titular nations (e.g., the Kazaks in Kazakstan, the Kyrgyz in Kyrgyzstan) of the republics were kept in lower positions. Underneath the titular nation in each republic were the autonomous republics and finally at the bottom of the pyramid were the groups deported during Stalin's repression. In many republics other ethnic groups lost their cultures in favor of the titular nation. Soviet statistics on ethnicity were not reliable, since many people had to rewrite their own ethnic backgrounds due to the repressive system. For example, Tajiks and Kyrgyz in Uzbekistan knew it was better for them and especially for their children to declare themselves Uzbek.

Ethnic Fragmentation

Ethnic fragmentation in the region can be seen on several levels: between Russians and Ukrainians and indigenous people, between indigenous peoples, such as Tajik and Turkic speakers, and within ethnic groups, such as divisions between North and South (in Kygyzstan), or hordes (in Kazakstan) or different tribes (in Turkmenistan). Among the native populations there are also visible divisions between urban, more Russified people and the more traditional, rural populations.

In Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan the titular nation constitutes a visible majority. In Uzbekistan the titular nationality is 74.5 percent of the population, in Turkmenistan, 72 percent and in Tajikistan, 62 percent, while in Kyrgyzstan it is just 60 percent of the population and in Kazakstan, the Kazaks are a minority with only 45 percent of the population.

Throughout Central Asia, Russians are a significant minority group concentrated in urban areas, mostly in the north and the capitals. Despite the capitals' recent, gradual process of indigenization, in Almaty, Kazakstan, and Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, indigenous people are still a minority. Native people frequently see their own capitals as alien.

Overview of the Current Factors of Instability

Ethnicity per se is not the main source of conflicts. Many of the tensions present in Central Asia appear to be ethnic in origin, but frequently have other roots. While not all of the factors are present to the same extent in all republics, below are some sources of instability in the region.

• Economic stagnation combined with a sharp drop in living standards and high unemployment has embraced the entire region. The population as a whole is much poorer than it was several years ago. The increasing number of poor are becoming marginalized, polarizing the population.
• The Central Asian countries are dependent on neighboring countries for energy, water, raw materials and goods. For 70 years the region was part of a highly interwoven Soviet economy, supplying raw materials to other republics and having little indigenous industry.
• Current attempts at privatization seem to mostly benefit the former Communist establishment or regional elites.
• The division of labor and distribution of wealth tend to conform to ethnic lines.
• Corruption and drug-trafficking have reached unprecedented dimensions. Criminals are increasing their influence over politics and economics. The Mafia is also divided by ethnic differences.
• There is increasing intergenerational conflict, expressed in clashes over traditional versus modern values, customs and beliefs.
• Many of the well-educated have left the region for better opportunities elsewhere.
• High birth rates and low mobility of locals increases conflict due to limited water and land resources. For example, in Kyrgyzstan less than 10 percent of the territory is suitable for settlement.
• Water is scarce and has become a highly prized resource. The destruction of the Aral Sea and poor water management is related to ethnic tensions and competition between countries.
• The traditional idea of state primacy over the individual means people frequently look for a strong state to solve problems rather than finding their own solutions.
• Almost all parties (except the Communist Party) are largely mono-national or mono-territorial, meaning the struggle for power often has an ethnic or clan tinge.
• Citizen organizations operate with a limited social base. Although there are several hundred NGOs in Kyrgyzstan, for example, this does not mean that there is an active civil society, since some of the organizations are for show, set up simply to receive funding.
• Russia, Turkey, Iran, the US, China and other countries have struggled for influence in the region, greatly affecting domestic and regional politics. Pipelines and the quest for oil have been one factor bringing external players to the region. The struggle to send oil from the Tengiz field of Kazakstan and transport gas out of Turkmenistan has led to competition between Russia, the US, Turkey, Iran and others.
• The Tajik war and instability in Afghanistan present a serious threat to the delicate power balance in neighboring countries. The direct involvement of Uzbekistan or Russia in the conflicts could seriously endanger security in the region. There is also the threat of Islamic fundamentalism rising from the South and challenging the secular nature of the regimes.

Civil War in Tajikistan

The civil war in Tajikistan is the most extreme case of intra-ethnic fragmentation in the region. The priority of group interests over common ones has resulted in a national tragedy. Due to the clan groupings of Tajik society and the failure of the government to overcome these differences, the Tajik state has fragmented into regional groupings based on clan loyalties. This localism, which has been present in Tajik society for generations, has resulted in a civil conflict that has forced half a million people to flee their homes and caused the deaths of over 20,000 people.

Uzbekistan has been a participant in the Tajik conflict and is actively supporting the large ethnic Uzbek population in the north of the country. The involvement of Uzbekistan (and to some degree Kyrgyzstan) due to the shared Fergana valley has greatly affected the internal politics of both countries. Tajikistan's experience provides an all too vivid example of what can happen as a result of ethnic conflict.

Islam

Immediately after the fall of the Soviet Empire, ethnic conflicts among the Muslims of Central Asia began to emerge. The development of tensions between Muslim groups is an unexpected contrast to the traditional view of ethnic tensions, which focuses on the relations between ethnic groups rather than within individual groups. At first glance, one would think that ethnic tension is likely to be between groups that are most different from each other, such as Russians (Slavic) and the titular nationalities (Turkic and Persian-speaking). However there have been numerous conflicts between similar ethnic groups, such as Tajik and Uzbek, or even within one ethnic group.

During Soviet times Islam was de-intellectualized and survived mainly in its ritual and traditional forms. The Soviet system prevented Islam from being modernized or changed, since most progressive Islamic leaders were silenced. The region was isolated from the rest of the Muslim world and progressive Islamic thought. Any possibility for progressive Islamic thought in Central Asia was undermined with the rooting out of those who tried to modernize Islam with the development of capitalism at the beginning of the century. There is a great need to modernize Islam for post-Soviet times.

Managing Tensions

Avoiding further violent conflict is a real possibility in Central Asia. Resolving economic and social problems, aiding the development of civic institutions, encouraging stability-promoting measures and promoting the integration of refugees and displaced persons will all work to prevent deadly conflict. None of the approaches will completely eliminate ethnic tensions, but it is possible to reduce the threat of destabilization and ethnic violence, and save the lives of potential victims.

Given the economic situation, it is necessary to implement a large-scale program for reducing unemployment and developing the economy and production capacity in the region. Pursuing common goals and activities could help develop ties as well as skills for resolving problems jointly.

Cooperation is needed to develop human rights standards in the region. Western powers should use their influence to encourage local governments to improve human rights legislation. Democratic forces and institutions in Central Asia should be developed and encouraged. Although the policy of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan is to isolate citizens from the outside world, there are many possibilities to help civic institutions and opposition politicians.

This period of instability in Central Asia may prove to be long and result in severe conflict. The prospects for peaceful cooperation are real, however, and cooperation would help pave the way for further democratization. A new kind of regional cooperation and partnership is needed as an alternative to the old mechanism of integration in order to maintain stability and encourage democracy in this unique part of the Muslim world.

Anara Tabyshalieva is currently a fellow at the US Institute of Peace. She is director of the Kyrgyz Peace Research Center. Kyrgyz Peace Research Center, PO Box 1880, Bishkek 720000, Kyrgyzstan; phone/fax: (3312) 28-17-71; e-mail: root@kprc.bishkek.su