Chechnya Holds Democratic Elections

by Chris Hunter

After 21 months of brutal war, Chechnya inaugurated its third president, Aslan Maskhadov, in early February. That the election process and the results were accepted by Chechen society displays the strong commitment of the Chechen people to the democratic process. International observers described the elections overall as democratic and fair.

The elections and Maskhadov's victory offer a solid foundation on which Chechens can rebuild their shattered republic and establish lasting peace. Maskhadov, who received two-thirds of the vote, was considered the candidate most able to unite the Chechens in the difficult months ahead. He is from the moderate northern part of Chechnya but also enjoys strong support in the militant south as the man who masterminded the military campaign against Russia.

Maskhadov has shown a generally positive and open attitude to the work of nongovernmental organizations. He offered assistance far beyond the call of duty to Russian soldiers' mothers and the Chechen women helping them find their sons during the war. His expressed admiration for other such peace and justice work during and since the war may help lead to a strong partnership between NGOs and state structures and encourage the development of a civil society. Several international NGOs are now making plans to return to Chechnya to continue relief work, following their withdrawal after the December murder of Red Cross workers in Novyie Atagi. They have been encouraged by the orderly and peaceful elections and Maskhadov's cooperative attitude.

Supporters of the other main candidates, Shamil Bassayev and Zemelkhan Yanderbiev, were greatly disappointed immediately following the announcement of results. There was a period of uncertainty for a few days when their reactions could have turned sour and led to instability in the republic. However, Shamil Bassayev and his entourage of fighters, journalists and friends then visited Maskhadov to offer congratulations and affirm his full acceptance of the election results.

Zemelkhan Yanderbiev, the outgoing president, at first grudgingly accepted the result and announced his intention to serve in the opposition. He then embarked upon an intense series of interviews with journalists and speeches at demonstrations.

Yanderbiev had signed a decree declaring the OSCE head of mission in Chechnya, Tim Guldiman, a persona non grata following the Swiss diplomat's statement that Chechnya remains a subject of the Russian Federation, and arranged to have Guldiman escorted by five armored cars out of Chechnya into the neighbouring republic of Ingushetia. Aslan Maskhadov later invited Guldiman back to Chechnya to attend his February inauguration ceremony. Yanderbiev admitted that he might have been wrong in expelling Guldiman, and on the eve of Maskhadov's inauguration, offered further conciliatory words, affirming that whatever his future role, he and Maskhadov were of one team with the same basic goals.

In an interview following the release of election results, Maskhadov announced that the first priorities of his presidency would be fighting against crime and strengthening Islam. In his inauguration speech, he swore "before the country, the nation, the memory of those innocently killed, that I will keep on the same political course." He referred to Chechnya's long history of conflict with Russia. "The Chechens have lost their best sons during these years. They have been deported, robbed, massacred." He referred also to the ethnic Russian minority in Chechnya, which has suffered both from the war and Chechen harrassment, stating that citizens "regardless of their ethnic origins have equal rights."

Independence?

Immediately after the first election returns came in, Maskhadov was asked by journalists about his position on Chechen independence. He replied, "that question was, I believe, decided in 1991. There can be no question of Chechnya's independence." The next step, he continued, was to gain recognition as an independent state.

Maskhadov, however, is in no hurry to sign an official agreement with Russia on the republic's status. He is not in favor of a referendum in Chechnya on the matter at this stage. He referred to the Khasavyurt agreement signed by himself and former Russian security chief Alexander Lebed, which states that Chechnya's status will be determined within a period of five years. This gives each side breathing room and the possibility to interpret the agreement as they please. The Chechens can assume themselves to be independent while Russia can treat the republic as part of the Russian Federation, though tact and diplomacy will be required from both sides.

There are those in Chechnya, however, who see a delayed decision on the republic's status as simply delaying the resumption of war. Outsiders will treat Chechnya as part of the Russian Federation until a new arrangement is agreed upon. Many in Chechnya are even unhappy having their leadership accept Russian money for reconstruction work, believing that it will have to be paid for dearly in the long term, perhaps with independence itself.

On the other hand, Chechnya needs money badly in order to pay salaries and pensions and to begin rebuilding. Money from Chechnya's oil is not currently enough to cover such costs. Russia, eager to convince Chechnya's population of the benefits of remaining in the Russian Federation, will be eager to give money for this purpose. However, if Russia's leaders believe that persuading the Chechens will be easy, then they have seriously misjudged them.

If Chechnya's field commanders become convinced that Russia is trying to manipulate them into federal status within Russia, they will not delay a return to military battle for long. Whereas the Russian army is in disarray and would be unwilling to head back to Chechnya, the Chechen military forces are far from spent. Furthermore, even if the military were to be persuaded, Russian leaders would have to deal with strong condemnation at home and from abroad.

Breaking from the Yeltsin government's official line of strict opposition to secession, influential Moscow mayor Yuri Luzhkov has put forth an alternative suggestion regarding Chechnya's status. A few days before Maskhadov's inauguration, Luzhkov declared that Chechnya should be allowed to secede, and that borders with Chechnya should be closed off to prevent the inflow of criminals and bandits. Luzhkov, who is thought to have ambitions toward the presidency, expresses the view of a large portion of Russia's electorate in this statement.

Maskhadov has so far shown himself to be a skilled negotiator. There is little doubt of his intention to lead his people further down the road towards independence. The Chechens will not be swayed from this goal. They see themselves as having paid dearly with the blood of their finest young men and tens of thousands of civilians. The new Chechen president will engage in hard negotiations with Moscow. These will determine what kind of independence will emerge and how effectively it will work.

Today the chance of lasting peace is real, but conflicts within the republic and with Russia must be resolved first. These obstacles must be overcome before what the Chechens see as a 300-year war for independence against Russian invaders from the north can finally be laid to rest.

Chris Hunter works with the Centre for Peacemaking and Community Development in Moscow. He has traveled extensively in the North Caucasus.